My Response to Bill Joy
Wednesday, August 9, 2000
by Mark Hurst
Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy wrote a thought-provoking essay in last month's Wired magazine called Why the future doesn't need us. In it, Joy makes bold predictions about technologies that we'll engage within the next 20 years. In particular, the article states that "robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech are threatening to make humans an endangered species."
The article is worth reading, since it deals with rare and important topics. For one thing, Joy says explicitly that new technology always has a downside: an obvious fact that is absent from most technolust-fueled news stories and business plans these days. Joy also suggests that anyone who creates technology has a responsibility to understand those downsides and try to minimize them. In other words, IPOs and billionaires aren't the only things technologists should be focusing on... another obvious fact, but it's rare to see it in print.
While the larger ideas are worthwhile, certain details of Joy's article are disappointing. The article is sprinkled with fanciful high-tech predictions that, ironically, seem to come from the very tech worship that Joy is cautioning against. For example:
A second dream of robotics is that we will gradually replace ourselves with our robotic technology, achieving near immortality by downloading our consciousnesses... But if we are downloaded into our technology, what are the chances that we will thereafter be ourselves or even human?
Somehow I doubt it. While robotics will almost certainly create change in the next 20 years, I just don't think I'll be downloading my brain onto a disk, so that I can be immortal. Was Joy just being provocative, or was he trying to sell magazines? I hope he's not trying to be serious.
On the other hand, I don't think we can underestimate the changes we'll see from developments in genetic engineering. That, in my opinion, is where we should concentrate our ethics, foresight, and common sense, as soon as possible.
So read the article, while maintaining your common sense. The intent of the piece is good, and I hope more leaders like Bill Joy will encourage the tech industry to think about the long-term effects of its actions.
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